Francesca Cerutti | University of Milan

CBRN Security Regimes: Measuring Effectiveness and Tracing its determinants

Are non-proliferation regimes effective? If so, under which circumstances? Existing theoretical and empirical studies fall short of providing consistent indications of the constraining power of security institutions and non-proliferation regimes on state decisions.

On the one hand, proponents of regimes highlight the overall capacity of institutions to contain the number of proliferators. On the other hand, detractors maintain that regimes have little or no effect on state decision to pursue specific weapons. The empirical association between framework conventions and the non-proliferation of the weapons under provision has proved weak and limited in its explanatory power.

Moving from a broader idea of regimes in relations to a multidimensional notion of effectiveness, this thesis develops a theoretical argument about the importance of networks of individual institutions (regime complexes) in regime analysis. I argue that regime-complex level data can drastically enhance our capacity to explain actual regime effectiveness, as well as the link between specific institutional features and impact on non-proliferation patterns.

I do so by introducing a new dataset, which gather information on several institutions parts of the biological non-proliferation regime complex. I then illustrate the use of the new dataset by developing measures of state exposure to the regime-complex in terms of overall embeddedness, compellingness, level of socialization experienced and regime consistency. I finally conduct statistical analysis of the correlates possibly linking these measure and states’ proliferation activities (assessed in terms of BW national use, possession, programs, and dual use research of concern).